
just rename itself "Michael Jordan
Totally Went Here."
As a youngster, I would often determine the outcome of future events by my ability to make a basketball shot. If I could sink a three, that meant that so-and-so liked me and that I was going to get straight A's in class.
Unfortunately, I was never that great at basketball. It's cool, I was a 4.0 student until I got to business school (ohi, calculus, y u no nice?) and people seem to think I'm tolerable.
If I missed the first shot, I would change the rules so that my preferred outcome would occur if I made 3 out of 5, or 4 out of 7, or 11 out of 20. I don't think I had the follow-through as a child to be upset if the outcome didn't actually happen. I was perfectly content just knowing that I had altered the universe by my ability to drain threes. As an adult I allow myself similar rationalizations. In fact, just this morning I reflected upon my recent romantic success and falsely correlated it to an increased likelihood of career success and financial rewards coming my way in the near future. We see people falsely correlate things like this all the time: "If I buy this car, I'll feel fulfilled" or "If my partner is a model, I'll have confidence about my desirability" or "If you build it, they will come."
Unfortunately, I was never that great at basketball. It's cool, I was a 4.0 student until I got to business school (ohi, calculus, y u no nice?) and people seem to think I'm tolerable.
If I missed the first shot, I would change the rules so that my preferred outcome would occur if I made 3 out of 5, or 4 out of 7, or 11 out of 20. I don't think I had the follow-through as a child to be upset if the outcome didn't actually happen. I was perfectly content just knowing that I had altered the universe by my ability to drain threes. As an adult I allow myself similar rationalizations. In fact, just this morning I reflected upon my recent romantic success and falsely correlated it to an increased likelihood of career success and financial rewards coming my way in the near future. We see people falsely correlate things like this all the time: "If I buy this car, I'll feel fulfilled" or "If my partner is a model, I'll have confidence about my desirability" or "If you build it, they will come."

Because this belongs on a workplace calendar somewhere
In life, as well as in business, we can learn a lot from long shots. In photography, a long exposure is a way to record images in dark settings. In sunlight, an image can flood into film in as little as 1/1000th of a second. However, in darkness you can set the exposure to several minutes or even hours depending upon the subject of the photograph. Translating this into a business metaphor, if you're 100% sure and conditions are ideal then a decision may be really simple to make. However, if things are murkier you will need more time to focus and make sure your image is clear.
Another important element of the long exposure is the subject matter. In the above image, you'll notice that the background and water are smooth, the details averaged out by the long exposure. At the same time, the chunks of concrete in the foreground are sparkling and clearly defined. A long exposure seems eerie because the most unchanging element is the most active, while the elements subject to the most change flatten out in the background. If you're able to devote more time to analyzing and planning, a lot of the smaller wrinkles smooth out and you become less obsessive about minor statistical variations or the day-to-day P&L.
One of the major mistakes I see with small businesses is a focus on product. This is especially troublesome with restaurants. While your name may be Alfredo and you may be an Italian who uses a Kitchen, "Alfredo's Italian Kitchen" is one of the worst things you could possibly name your restaurant. All it does is say that you make Italian food (usually pizza) and that it's probably not very original and might be a little boring. It also causes the customer to wonder if Alfredo's Italian Kitchen is a chain since there seems to be one of these restaurants in every city, and if the customer has had a bad experience with Alfredo's in the past you might be paying the price. As someone who manages accounts for quite a few restaurants (~12,000) in These United States I can tell you that the less successful restaurants typically follow this branding format: Stereotypical ethnic name + cuisine/menu item + semi-arbitrary noun. Lest we give the world's Alfredos a bad name, here are some examples from other cultures that are terrifyingly ubiquitous:
Another important element of the long exposure is the subject matter. In the above image, you'll notice that the background and water are smooth, the details averaged out by the long exposure. At the same time, the chunks of concrete in the foreground are sparkling and clearly defined. A long exposure seems eerie because the most unchanging element is the most active, while the elements subject to the most change flatten out in the background. If you're able to devote more time to analyzing and planning, a lot of the smaller wrinkles smooth out and you become less obsessive about minor statistical variations or the day-to-day P&L.
One of the major mistakes I see with small businesses is a focus on product. This is especially troublesome with restaurants. While your name may be Alfredo and you may be an Italian who uses a Kitchen, "Alfredo's Italian Kitchen" is one of the worst things you could possibly name your restaurant. All it does is say that you make Italian food (usually pizza) and that it's probably not very original and might be a little boring. It also causes the customer to wonder if Alfredo's Italian Kitchen is a chain since there seems to be one of these restaurants in every city, and if the customer has had a bad experience with Alfredo's in the past you might be paying the price. As someone who manages accounts for quite a few restaurants (~12,000) in These United States I can tell you that the less successful restaurants typically follow this branding format: Stereotypical ethnic name + cuisine/menu item + semi-arbitrary noun. Lest we give the world's Alfredos a bad name, here are some examples from other cultures that are terrifyingly ubiquitous:

Georgie, I think the name 'Free Money & Loose Women'
would help draw customers into the diner."
Ming's Chinese Garden
Sally's Seashore Sub Shop
Matthieu's French Café
Cocina Mexican Kitchen
Some examples of more inventive restaurant names:
Björn's Ludicrous Lutefisk
Korma Chameleon
Yo Mama's Place
John Dough
Baguetteaboudit
Last, here are some killer restaurant brands:
Domino's
Subway
TGI Friday's
Just to quickly point out the progression, the first set of restaurant names is unimpressive and makes you go, "Yep, that's a restaurant." The second set appeals to your sense of humor by using wordplay and word association. Baguetteaboudit (it's a wonderful food truck in Durham, by the way) is really close to be a world-class restaurant name because it reminds customers of NYC and is a perfect rhyme with fuggedaboutit. I'll call it inventive and brilliant, but it's not quite brand genius.
The last set is a bit different because you immediately FEEL the restaurant and see their imagery. Granted, a lot of this is because they're huge chains, but at the same time if they didn't have that strong consistent branding they may not have been successful enough to franchise. This last set is not pulling in a pop culture reference or exclusively relying upon suggestive menu items in the name, they have a Real Live Brand. This allows them to completely own the brand and removes basically all limitations if they want to re-brand. It's kind of difficult to start selling sushi if you're Cocina Mexican Kitchen. You will confuse and estrange your core customers.
Before you start your business, devote some serious time to branding. If you have a small business or a startup already functioning, spend some time projecting into the very distant future to make sure your brand has legs. Imagine if your company goes national and has a store in almost every city. While I would love to see my name on the NYSE this can introduce all sorts of Problems. My personal and political views aren't all that interesting as I'm a straight-shooting moderate, but if the media got hold of them and painted me a certain way, it could really derail my company.
One recent example of this effect is "Papa" John Schnatter, CEO of...oh wait, I bet you guessed: Papa John's Pizza.
Papa John became the object of much ire when he voiced his opposition to the healtchcare mandate. Because his name is in his business' name, his business is correspondingly associated with all of his personal views and lifestyle choices. Ultimately, the reason I don't order from Papa John's isn't because I disagree with Papa John Schnatter's views, I just happen to like Domino's pizza better. The reason Papa John's gaffes are so egregious is that there is no pathway out of this negative publicity: John Schnatter's image is the brand too. As compared to Chick-Fil-A President's equally publicized opposition to gay marriage, you don't have the option to dismiss Papa John's views as the views of one man. Take the long view--if you died or if you were embroiled in some seriously twisted out of proportion personal drama, would you want the media to hijack your personal problems and re-brand your company with them?
Sally's Seashore Sub Shop
Matthieu's French Café
Cocina Mexican Kitchen
Some examples of more inventive restaurant names:
Björn's Ludicrous Lutefisk
Korma Chameleon
Yo Mama's Place
John Dough
Baguetteaboudit
Last, here are some killer restaurant brands:
Domino's
Subway
TGI Friday's
Just to quickly point out the progression, the first set of restaurant names is unimpressive and makes you go, "Yep, that's a restaurant." The second set appeals to your sense of humor by using wordplay and word association. Baguetteaboudit (it's a wonderful food truck in Durham, by the way) is really close to be a world-class restaurant name because it reminds customers of NYC and is a perfect rhyme with fuggedaboutit. I'll call it inventive and brilliant, but it's not quite brand genius.
The last set is a bit different because you immediately FEEL the restaurant and see their imagery. Granted, a lot of this is because they're huge chains, but at the same time if they didn't have that strong consistent branding they may not have been successful enough to franchise. This last set is not pulling in a pop culture reference or exclusively relying upon suggestive menu items in the name, they have a Real Live Brand. This allows them to completely own the brand and removes basically all limitations if they want to re-brand. It's kind of difficult to start selling sushi if you're Cocina Mexican Kitchen. You will confuse and estrange your core customers.
Before you start your business, devote some serious time to branding. If you have a small business or a startup already functioning, spend some time projecting into the very distant future to make sure your brand has legs. Imagine if your company goes national and has a store in almost every city. While I would love to see my name on the NYSE this can introduce all sorts of Problems. My personal and political views aren't all that interesting as I'm a straight-shooting moderate, but if the media got hold of them and painted me a certain way, it could really derail my company.
One recent example of this effect is "Papa" John Schnatter, CEO of...oh wait, I bet you guessed: Papa John's Pizza.
Papa John became the object of much ire when he voiced his opposition to the healtchcare mandate. Because his name is in his business' name, his business is correspondingly associated with all of his personal views and lifestyle choices. Ultimately, the reason I don't order from Papa John's isn't because I disagree with Papa John Schnatter's views, I just happen to like Domino's pizza better. The reason Papa John's gaffes are so egregious is that there is no pathway out of this negative publicity: John Schnatter's image is the brand too. As compared to Chick-Fil-A President's equally publicized opposition to gay marriage, you don't have the option to dismiss Papa John's views as the views of one man. Take the long view--if you died or if you were embroiled in some seriously twisted out of proportion personal drama, would you want the media to hijack your personal problems and re-brand your company with them?

If my target were to make a semi-relevant joke about this
picture, for instance, I'd say something like, "Oh crap, the
hippies and nerds have united and are revolting. Quick:
someone dispense free joints and copies of Dead Space 3."
If you're still in the planning stages of your business venture, make sure you pick a distant target, even 30-40 years out, and imagine the worst case scenario. Since you'll be looking at the target in the very great distance, it's fairly unlikely you'll land smack dab in the bullseye. At the same time, if your arrow is reasonably on track for its flight and lands somewhere near the target, that's still pretty dang good. If you set a close target as your goal and say to yourself, "I'll cross that bridge when I get to it," about long-term goals, you're less likely to get there. And if you do make it 30-40 years, you probably won't even be in the same field where you fired those first arrows. You probably won't even be shooting arrows anymore.
It's no secret that 95% of businesses fail within 5 years and you only have a 40% chance of making any money. I always hear this as a tactic to discourage would-be entrepreneurs from starting their own businesses, but the fact is that a 5% success rate really isn't bad. You can increase the likelihood that you'll survive if you do the things other small businesses don't bother with, namely focusing your target, making a brand that's unique and easy for customers to buy into, and creating manageable and realistic growth goals. If you want to kill your competition, observe them for a while before you enter the market. Identify what they do and then figure out how you are different. Plan on highlighting your differences and exploiting your competition's weaknesses once customers express ho-hum satisfaction with their products. One example we're bombarded with constantly in b-school is the Slanket vs Snuggie war, which Snuggie has all but won NOT because it had a better product, but because they had significantly stronger brand and growth strategy.
It's no secret that 95% of businesses fail within 5 years and you only have a 40% chance of making any money. I always hear this as a tactic to discourage would-be entrepreneurs from starting their own businesses, but the fact is that a 5% success rate really isn't bad. You can increase the likelihood that you'll survive if you do the things other small businesses don't bother with, namely focusing your target, making a brand that's unique and easy for customers to buy into, and creating manageable and realistic growth goals. If you want to kill your competition, observe them for a while before you enter the market. Identify what they do and then figure out how you are different. Plan on highlighting your differences and exploiting your competition's weaknesses once customers express ho-hum satisfaction with their products. One example we're bombarded with constantly in b-school is the Slanket vs Snuggie war, which Snuggie has all but won NOT because it had a better product, but because they had significantly stronger brand and growth strategy.

the boy has a point! Yes, he's got it!" Dude on
the right puts on his Yao face and is all, "True Story.
I want to touch it and love it forever and ever and ever."
Taking the long shot is useful because it can give you perspective outside of your current situation. It shows you what your real values are and creates a single-minded obsession that aligns your decisions with attaining your goals. If your endgame is to be profitable, you're more likely to go out of business because you're focused on "what I want" rather than "why I want it and how I'll get it." Going back to our photography examples, you should be seeing the foreground of your business in terms of its long exposure instead of taking a quick glance and not worrying about how well-defined your image is. The statistical variations will even out given time, but if you don't have the lens focused on your subject, well, the picture you get is going to be a blurry waste of time.
Sustainable profits result from hard work but hard work can also result in failed businesses. By aiming at a target in the distance you increase the odds that the hard work you're putting in will pay dividends instead of ends.
Sustainable profits result from hard work but hard work can also result in failed businesses. By aiming at a target in the distance you increase the odds that the hard work you're putting in will pay dividends instead of ends.